NHL prospects I was wrong about, the 2021-22 edition – The Athletic

Projecting teenagers to the pros is a humbling task. Therefore, every year I look at some key player evaluations that I got wrong. But in addition to just pointing out bad projections, I seek to shine a light on why the mistake was made and use it as a learning experience for me, and hopefully for some readers too.

There are two criteria I use to define a mistake. The first is it must be a mistake you can learn from. If all the information points in one direction at the time of an evaluation and there’s no convincing argument that I missed something essential at the time, then it might just be chalked up to the inherent high rate of error involved in projecting teenagers.

The second is the magnitude of the error. If I project a player as a third-pair defenseman and now he’s a second, that’s not really worth discussing in this forum. Referencing the categories I used in my recent under-23 ranking, I look to be off by three or four categories to define it as a true error. So if I said a player wasn’t an NHL player and they become a second-line forward, or I projected them as a top-pair defenseman and they are a third-pair defenseman.

Nobody will do this, but I urge you to quickly reference previous articles where I likely have already discussed a player as an error before you comment how he should have been included.

2020-21 edition | 2019 edition |

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