NHL weekly betting guide: True moneylines for every game

How much does one player matter? It depends on the team. Sidney Crosby is not replaceable for even one game with the lack of depth on the Pittsburgh Penguins, whereas the Florida Panthers are better equipped to absorb the absence of Aleksander Barkov. While a long-term Barkov injury would hurt the Panthers, Florida can cover for him in one game. Don’t overpay for a great player’s absence from a great team.

The recipe

We provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I’ve taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season’s advanced stats to create a rating for each team. (I make adjustments for injuries to key players.)

With roughly 13% of the season played, here’s how I’m weighing those three factors as of Nov. 8:

25% 60% 15%

Last season’s advanced metrics act as a baseline so we don’t overreact to a good start. Aren’t you glad you didn’t start wildly betting on the Sabres after a few wins to begin the season? The Avalanche are sixth in the Central Division. Do we think that’s a sign of things to come? No.

Next, we use the regular-season point-total market to account for our assessment of these teams before the campaign. We all had the chance to bet the under on the Montreal Canadiens‘ season point total, and not enough of us did to move the number lower. So let’s not overreact to their slow start.

Lastly, we use the games we’ve seen so far this season. What happens on the ice now does matter, but 11 games isn’t a predictive sample size. No one is tattooing the Panthers and Oilers for a Stanley Cup Final matchup, are they?

The cheat sheet

The following is a lookahead to a week’s worth of games. Bettors and content creators alike throw around “value” as a buzzword, but what does that actually mean for you?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we’re getting better than a fair price on the team that’s more likely to win. For the underdog, I’ll need 4% or better to make it a bet.

NOV. 8 BUF@WSH +193/-193 BUF +232/WSH -185
FLA@NYR +102/-102 FLA +119/NYR +116
LAK@TOR +158/-158 LAK +188/ TOR -151
NOV. 9 LAK@MTL +160/-160 LAK +191/MTL -154
OTT@BOS +198/-198 OTT +239/BOS -190
CAR@TBL +120/-120 CAR +141/TBL -115
FLA@NJD -103/+103 FLA +114/NJD +121
EDM@DET -129/+129 EDM -124/DET +153
STL@WPG +113/-113 STL +132/WPG -108
*PIT@CHI +122/-122 PIT +144/CHI -117
SJS@CGY +138/-138 SJS +163/CGY -132
SEA@VGK +105/-105 SEA +124/VGK -101
ANA@VAN +153/-153 ANA +181/VAN -146
NOV. 10 TOR@PHI -118/+118 TOR -113/PHI +138
NSH@DAL +132/-132 NSH +156/DAL -127
MIN@ARI -171/+171 MIN -164/ARI +204
NOV. 11 EDM@BOS +115/-115 EDM +135/BOS -111
NYI@NJD +126/-126 NYI -121/NJD +149
*FLA@PIT -138/+138 FLA -132/PIT +163
LAK@OTT +128/-128 LAK +151/OTT -123
CGY@MTL -104/+104 CGY +100/MTL +122
WSH@DET -127/+127 WSH -122/DET +150
NSH@STL +143/-143 NSH +169/STL -137
SJS@WPG +120/-120 SJS +141/WPG -115
VAN@COL +189/-189 VAN +227/COL -181
ANA@SEA +152/-152 ANA +180/SEA -146
MIN@VGK -102/+102 MIN +115/VGK +120
NOV. 12 CGY@TOR +161/-161 CGY +191/TOR -154
EDM@BUF -120/+120 EDM -115/BUF +141
PHI@CAR +127/-127 PHI +150/CAR -122
WSH@CBJ -135/+135 WSH -130/CBJ +159
ARI@CHI +146/-146 ARI +173/CHI -140
NOV. 13 BOS@NJD -121/+121 BOS -116/NJD +142
*PIT@OTT +123/-123 PIT +144/OTT -118
MTL@DET -104/+104 MTL -100/DET +122
LAK@WPG +127/-127 LAK +150/WPG -122
TOR@BUF -202/+202 TOR -193/BUF +243
FLA@TBL +107/-107 FLA +126/TBL -103
NYR@CBJ -146/+146 NYR -140/CBJ +173
STL@CAR +109/-109 STL +128/CAR -105
ARI@NSH +193/-193 ARI +232/NSH -185
PHI@DAL +128/-128 PHI +151/DAL -151
SJS@COL +185/-185 SJS +221/COL -177
MIN@SEA -118/+118 MIN -113/SEA +138
VAN@VGK +124/-124 VAN +146/VGK -119
NOV. 14 CGY@OTT -135/+135 CGY -130/OTT +160
EDM@STL -125/+125 EDM -120/STL +147
*PIT@WSH +140/-140 PIT +165/WSH -134
NJD@NYR +117/-117 NJD +137/NYR -112
MTL@BOS +144/-144 MTL +170/BOS -138
VAN@ANA +113/-113 VAN +133/ANA -109

*Reflects price without Sidney Crosby (Out due to COVID-19 as of this writing)

If you’re looking at betting a game this week, refer to this chart to see whether or not you’re truly getting value with one side or the other. New injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, but this is a good reference point for identifying an attractive price for the side you like.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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